Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone close by, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
